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MARCH 9,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

SECOND POLL VERIFIES TRUMP FLORIDA BLOWOUT –  Less than a week until the first winner-take-all Republican primaries, Donald Trump is trouncing Marco Rubio on his home turf, according to a new Fox News poll.  In the race for the Republican nomination, Trump receives 43 percent among Florida likely GOP primary voters. Rubio is a distant second with 20 percent, closely followed by Ted Cruz at 16 percent. John Kasich comes in fourth with 10 percent.  Here is what’s driving the vote: a 63-percent majority of likely Republican primary voters feels “betrayed” by politicians in their party -- and they go heavily for Trump over Cruz (49-18 percent), with Rubio and Kasich way behind (12 percent and 11 percent respectively). This poll ratifies the CNN poll we reported on earlier today, and even has Trump in a larger lead.  I just don't see how Rubio can catch up by Tuesday. 

IS THIS SERIOUS? – From the Blaze:  Attorney General Loretta Lynch testified Wednesday that the Justice Department has “discussed” taking civil legal action against the fossil fuel industry for “denying” the “threat of carbon emissions” when it comes to climate change.  Huh?  Why don't we just tear up the Constitution entirely and call it a day?  I cannot believe such a discussion took place within the Justice Department, except perhaps as a sop to the climate-change religionists who dominate the Church of Obama.  The climate-change debate among scientists is real and serious.  This is not the 15th century.

WHY? – Jeb Bush is having meetings.  From The Hill:  Jeb Bush is meeting with the three Republican presidential candidates seeking to take down front-runner Donald Trump before Thursday's GOP debate, according to a new report.  Bush is huddling with Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Ohio Gov. John Kasich before the Miami debate, The New York Times reported Wednesday.  The former Florida governor repeatedly clashed with Trump during his own GOP presidential campaign, which ended late last month after disappointing results in early-voting states.  Bush is meeting Rubio on Wednesday and speaking with Cruz and Kasich on Thursday before the debate.  It's unclear whether Bush will endorse a candidate before March 15, when both Ohio and Florida vote in winner-take-all primaries, the Times said.   It's also unclear whether his endorsement will mean anything, positively or negatively.  Jeb Bush is a good man and was a fine governor of Florida.  But someone of his tempo, style and background just wasn't going to make it this year.

KASICH PREDICTS OPEN CONVENTION – From The Hill:  Republican presidential candidate Ohio Gov. John Kasich said Wednesday that he doubts any of the four remaining candidates can win the 1,237 delegates needed to become the GOP nominee and that a contested convention is the likeliest outcome.
Speaking at a town hall event on Fox News, host Greta Van Susteren asked Kasich, who has yet to win any state, if he has a path to the nomination.  “We’ve picked about half the delegates, and we have, of course, the other half to go,” Kasich responded. “And there was this poll today … Trump was at 27, Cruz was at 25 and I was at 24, so it’s really, really jammed and close."  Look, it's possible.  Many in the news business would love to see a contested convention, just for the drama.  The problem, of course, is that Trump could blackmail the convention by threatening a third party if he wasn't given the nomination.   If he carried out the threat, it's likely that no Republican could be elected.   Reads like a good novel, soon to be a minor motion picture.

March 9,  2016     Permalink

FLORIDA, OHIO POLLS – TRUMP UP – AT 4:51 P.M. ET:   A new series of polls shows Trump ahead dramatically in Florida and ahead, but possibly catchable, in Ohio.   From The Politico: 

Donald Trump has a commanding lead over Marco Rubio and John Kasich in their home states.
A CNN/ORC poll out Wednesday has Trump holding the lead in Florida with almost double the share of voters than Rubio (40 percent to 24 percent). Cruz follows with 19 percent and Kasich has just 5 percent.

The poll of Ohio Republicans has Trump ahead of the Ohio governor 41 percent to 35 percent. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz has 15 percent and Rubio is a distant fourth with 7 percent.

Rubio's campaign is working nonstop to try and win the state. The Florida senator has essentially camped out in Florida, doing back to back events throughout the state.

Trump appeared on CNN “New Day” Wednesday and was asked about the poll, particularly what it means if he’s able to take both states.

“At that point it’s pretty tough for anybody to do anything,” he said. “I would love to see the party come together and unify.”

There’s added pressure for both Kasich and Rubio to do well at home since a majority of voters in both states say they should get out if they aren’t able to do well: 71 percent for Kasich in Ohio and 66 percent for Rubio in Florida.

COMMENT:  As we've noted, a week from now we may well be looking at a new Republican race.  And it is even possible that the Democratic race may tighten to the point where Hillary is seriously doubted.  Bernie Sanders's surprise win in Michigan last night suggests that he may have strength in the old industrial Midwest.

March 9, 2016        Permalink

WHAT WE FACE – AT 10:52 A.M. ET:   ISIS is trying to develop chemical weapons.  From The New York Times: 

WASHINGTON — An Islamic State detainee currently in American custody at a temporary detention facility in Erbil, Iraq, is a specialist in chemical weapons whom American military officials are questioning about the militant Sunni group’s plans to use the banned substances in Iraq and Syria, Defense officials said.

Defense officials said the detainee, described by the military as a “significant” Islamic State operative who was captured a month ago by commandos in an elite American Special Operations force, has, under interrogation, provided his captors with details about how the group had weaponized mustard gas into powdered form and loaded it into artillery shells.

One Defense official said that it was not concentrated enough to kill anyone, but that it could maim people.

As is protocol, Defense Department officials notified the International Committee of the Red Cross, which monitors the treatment of detainees, that they were holding an Islamic State fighter. The Red Cross acknowledged in a statement on Tuesday that it had visited the detainee but gave no other information.

COMMENT:  Eventually, terrorist groups will get weapons of mass destruction.  If they can't develop them, they might be able to buy them on the black market.  And the number of terror groups seems to be expanding, not contracting.  Reports like this are chilling, but, sadly, soon forgotten by the public.  It will take a serious jolt to wake us up again.

March 9, 2016       Permalink

WELCOME TO HAVANA, PRESIDENT OBAMA – AT 9:51 A.M. ET:  The president will soon travel to Havana, or, as it's called by his political friends, Mecca.  But the welcome may well be chilly.  Cuba, you see, has "grievances."  From Reuters: 

HAVANA (Reuters) - Cuba said it would welcome President Barack Obama to Havana later this month, but the Communist government had no intention of changing its policies in exchange for normal relations with the United States.

In a long editorial on Wednesday in Communist Party newspaper Granma and other official media, Cuba demanded Washington cease meddling in its internal affairs and said Obama could do more to change U.S. policy.

The March 20-22 visit from Obama comes 15 months after he and Cuban President Raul Castro agreed to end more than five decades of Cold War-era animosity and try to normalize relations.

They have restored diplomatic ties, and Obama has relaxed a series of trade sanctions and travel restrictions, leading Republican opponents and even some of the president's fellow Democrats to question whether Washington was offering too much without any reciprocation from Havana.

But the editorial made it clear that Cuba still has a long list of grievances with the United States, starting with the comprehensive trade embargo. Obama wants to rescind the embargo but Republican leadership in Congress has blocked the move.

Cuba also objected to U.S. support for its political dissidents, whom some Americans consider champions of human rights but whom the Cuban government views as an unrepresentative minority funded by U.S. interests.

"(The United States) should abandon the pretense of fabricating an internal political opposition, paid for with money from U.S. taxpayers," the nearly 3,000-word editorial said.

The editorial came during Cubans' growing anticipation of the Obama visit, only the second by a U.S. president and the first since the 1959 revolution led by Fidel Castro that overthrew a pro-American government.

The editorial said Cuba was working to build a new relationship with the United States, but no one should assume it had to "renounce any of its principles or cede the slightest bit in its defense" to do so.

COMMENT:  We got nothing from this renewal of ties, and the ordinary people of Cuba got less than nothing.  When you flash weakness at a dictatorship, the dictatorship responds with strength. 

I'm always amused how the Castro crowd, and its allies on American college campuses, claim that the American trade embargo is responsible for ruining the Cuban economy.  That is rubbish.  Cuba trades with the rest of the world.  The ruination of its economy came through traditional Marxist failure. 

Frankly, I wish the president wouldn't go to Cuba.  He'll just be used, although he seems to enjoy that role.  But if he does go, he should insist on speaking with dissidents.  Real dissidents.  Not actors.  Let's see if he's got the guts.

March 9, 2016       Permalink 

LAST NIGHT – QUOTE OF THE DAY – AT 9:25 A.M. ET:  From Eliana Johnson and Alexis Levinson at NRO: 

It was a terrible night for the forces that have come collectively to be known as #NeverTrump, the diverse array of people, campaigns, and historically important institutions united only by a desire to deny Donald Trump the Republican presidential nomination. Going into Tuesday’s primaries, the last elections before the race enters its final and determinative phase when Ohio and Florida award 165 delegates on a winner-take-all basis next week, Trump’s enemies had hoped to stall his momentum. In particular, they hoped that Ted Cruz, whose campaign is based in large part on his appeal to Evangelical voters, could throw up a roadblock in Mississippi, and that John Kasich could arrest Trump’s momentum in Michigan.

Both Cruz and Kasich failed. And as they did, the slow death of the Republican party ground onward. Hope of preserving the conservative movement that has sustained it for nearly four decades diminished further.

COMMENT:  Perfectly stated.  Read the whole thing. 

There really isn't much more to "analyze" right now.  We will wait six days until next Tuesday, when Ohio and Florida will decide the fate of Kasich and Rubio.  That fate looks pretty grim right now.  Then we may see a Trump-Cruz contest, but the task for Cruz would be monumental.  The best he could probably hope for would be a contested convention.

A Republican debate is scheduled for March 21st in Salt Lake City, Utah.  However, the Republican governor of the state, Gary Herbert, now says that the debate might be canceled because Donald Trump may not show up.  Trump has said, "If I've got it wrapped up, I may not come to Salt Lake."  That's 12 days from now.  As they say, we await developments.

March 9,  2016     Permalink

MARCH 8,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:

A MAJOR UPSET – Socialist/Democrat Bernie Sanders won the Michigan primary, narrowly defeating Hillary Clinton in a state that Clinton had expected to carry, and a major industrial state as well.  It won't do much to dent Hillary's lead in the delegate count, but could be an important marker if Clinton starts losing the big industrial states that are part of the Democratic base.  We'll see about that starting next Tuesday.  Meanwhile, Hillary won Mississippi, largely on the strength of the black vote.

TRUMP TRUMPED ONLY ONCE – Trump took the main events today, Mississippi and Michigan, but Ted Cruz beat him in Idaho.  Michigan was YUGE for Trump.  He showed that he could defeat all comers in a state dominated by industrial workers who are hurting.  The victories tonight set Trump up for the decisive contests next Tuesday in Ohio and Florida.  If he takes those two states, he'll be on a clear road to the nomination, with few options open to any opponent.

RUBIO FADES – There's no doubt about it, Marco Rubio is, as of tonight, fading from the electoral scene.  He will probably be gone completely if he loses his home state of Florida next week.  I regret it.  I had thought he'd be the most effective Republican candidate against the Dems, but the voters disagree, and they always win.  If Rubio and Kasich both get knocked out next week, only Cruz will be left standing, and his job will be to dent Trump badly enough to insure an open convention.

TRUMP – I watched his victory speech tonight.  It was the usual weirdness, an endless ego trip.  It reminded me of the song from "My Fair Lady," A Hymn to Him.  In this case the him is singing the hymn to himself.  I don't know how long Trump can get away with an act that is so un-presidential.  Dignity and style have to matter in a president.

March 8, 2016       Permalink

PRIMARY DAY – AT 2:28 A.M. ET:  This is another primary day.  The big prizes are Michigan and Mississippi.  Some pollsters have noticed Trump slipping in recent days.  Will that show up in today's voting?  In Ohio and Florida a week from today? 

As voting goes on, busy bees are changing the voter qualification system in a number of states.  The purpose, which is pretty blatant, is to get more Democratic voters to the polls, and make it easier for non-citizens to qualify.  From AP:

SALEM, Ore. (AP) — In a typical month, 2,000 people register to vote in Oregon. In the first six days of this year, more than 4,300 joined the voter rolls under a new initiative that automatically signs up voters when they apply for driver's licenses.

Oregon is the first state to adopt the idea that it is the government's responsibility to register voters — a move that could increase the number of registered voters by 13 percent by the November election.

California has approved similar legislation, and automatic registration bills have been introduced in more than a dozen other states. But it remains to be seen whether the idea will take hold beyond two West Coast states dominated by Democrats or whether the newly registered will decide to participate.

"There's no other fundamental right we have as citizens that requires you to register or fill out a form," said Alex Padilla, California's Democratic secretary of state, who advocated for the law. "I don't have to register somewhere to exercise my freedom of speech. I don't have to fill out a form somewhere to exercise my right to not be discriminated against."

Researchers at the Pew Center on the States reported in 2012, before the last presidential election, that 51 million Americans were eligible to vote but unregistered. Pew said last year that the United States has one of the lowest voter-participation rates of the democratic world.

COMMENT:  Such rot.  The purpose of voter registration is to prevent fraud.  One person, one vote.  Not one person, 20 votes.  Registration is made a voluntary act because it is the citizen who decides or declines to vote.  The government should have no role to play except to take in the registration because government agencies can become politicized.

As to the chap who said he doesn't have to register somewhere to exercise freedom of speech, he might contemplate the term "parade permit," or examine the attack on free speech that is going on at many colleges and universities.  Then we'll talk.

March 8, 2016       Permalink

SHE IS WEIRD – AT 2:15 A.M. ET:  Hillary Clinton, for whom lying comes naturally, is at it again.  From The Hill:

Hillary Clinton said late Monday the FBI has not informed her that she is the subject of a probe over her email practices as secretary of State.

“I’ve heard others say that neither you nor your lawyers have been apprised that you’re the target of the investigation,” Fox News anchor Bret Baier said to Clinton during a town hall in Detroit.

“Absolutely true,” the Democratic presidential front-runner replied.

“Have your or your lawyers been apprised that your current or former staff are targets of the investigation?” Baier asked.

“Absolutely not,” the former first lady responded.

She could read the newspapers.

Clinton then argued that she committed no wrongdoing by using a personal email account at the State Department.

“I will reiterate because it’s a fact — nothing I sent or received was classified,” she said of her correspondences at the agency.

“There’s much misinformation going on around here,” Clinton continued. "I have said it was the best choice to use a personal email. It was a mistake.

I think she probably meant to say, "wasn't the best choice..."  At any rate, I doubt if the FBI would devote 150 agents to a simple mistake.  We now have been told by credible news sources that there were many classified e-mails on her private server, and subject to hacking by foreign powers. 

“However, I am not alone in that. Many people in the government, past and current, on occasion or as a practice, have done the same.”

Clinton additionally charged that the classification process is needlessly complex and confusing for everyday Americans.

“What happens when you ask or are asked to make information public is that it’s reviewed and different agencies come and give in with their opinions,” she said.

COMMENT:  Oh come on.  There's common sense involved.  She never used common sense.  It isn't for the Clintons.  It's for the common people. 

March 8, 2016       Permalink

WHILE WE VOTE – AT 2:03 A.M. ET:  While we enjoy the privilege of voting, American forces are defending that privilege in places most Americans have never heard of.  From The New York Times:

WASHINGTON — American aircraft on Saturday struck a training camp in Somalia belonging to the Islamist militant group the Shabab, the Pentagon said, killing about 150 fighters who were assembled for what American officials believe was a graduation ceremony and prelude to an imminent attack against American troops and their allies in East Africa.

Defense officials said the strike was carried out by drones and American aircraft, which dropped a number of precision-guided bombs and missiles on the field where the fighters were gathered. Pentagon officials said they did not believe there were any civilian casualties, but there was no independent way to verify the claim. They said they delayed announcing the strike until they could assess the outcome.

It was the deadliest attack on the Shabab in the more than decade-long American campaign against the group, an affiliate of Al Qaeda, and a sharp deviation from previous American strikes, which have concentrated on the group’s leaders, not on its foot soldiers.

It comes in response to new concerns that the group, which was responsible for one of the deadliest terrorist attacks on African soil when it struck a popular mall in Nairobi in 2013, is in the midst of a resurgence after losing much of the territory it once held and many of its fighters in the last several years. The planned attack on American and African Union troops in Somalia, American officials say, may have been an attempt by the Shabab to carry out the same kind of high-impact act of terrorism as the one in Nairobi.

COMMENT:  We must now brace for retaliation.  It is remarkable how many Islamic terror groups we are facing, one more fierce than the other.  Of course, the Obama administration came to office calling anti-terror raids "overseas contingency operations."  The left is so lovely with words.

March 8,  2016     Permalink